Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Cam & Bilbo Weekly Chat: THE State of THE Warriors

Cam & Bilbo. AKA: BoNote
Bilbo: The State of the Warriors - I feel like they are moving in the right direction but there are games that leave me scratching my head. The recent Laker game is a great example. They played well for three and a half quarters and just let it slip away. Granted, Kobe has a habit of killing teams in the 4th, but I felt like they still should have won. The Jan 1st match up was another game that showed their potential. They dropped 72 in the first half against The Heat but let it slip away in the second. I really believe that if they can string together a few solid wins they go on a roll. Their schedule is great through February with 14 of the next 17 at home. Do you think they could make a push and steal the 8th spot? I could see Portland slipping now that Roy is out forever. Phoenix, Houston and Memphis are in the hunt, but I could see the Dubs doing damage now that everyone is healthy.

Cam: Sweet! 41 games in is the perfect time to do some Warriors predictions. At least the head scratching losses were versus great teams. The early January halftime leads of 14 vs. the Heat and 8 vs. the Magic were awesome, but it wasn’t surprising that both games eventually were lost. The Dubs had injuries and were closing out a brutal road trip. The Warriors beat Charlotte on New Years Eve. Then on New Years Day they had to play the Heat. I personally think that The Miami Thrice were a little hung over on New Years Day which helped with that halftime Warrior lead. And then after their second half stinkbomb and eventual loss in Orlando, the Dubs closed out their 5 game road trip with a win in New Orleans (probable playoff team). The contest vs. The Lakers last week was awesome but Kobe and Odumb dominated the 4th Quarter. The Lakers are waaay better than the Warriors and if the Lakers play really well for even part of the game, it’s currently impossible for the Warriors to beat them. Hence the 10 game losing streak to the Lakers. But that being said, I’m fired up that the Warriors are performing on this long and relatively easy home stand. Beating the Blake Griffins on Friday, New Jersey in the Monday matinee, and the last second Monta Ellis money jumper win on Wednesday vs. the Pacers has produced a nice little 3 game win streak. At 18-23 and with only 4 road games in their next 17 against some beatable teams, this is the time for the Dubs to put up or shut up. If they’re back above .500 with Monta being a coaches choice All-Star at the end of February, they’ve got a good shot. Here’s to hoping the injuries don’t creep up again. Because March is essentially all on the road and they play some great playoff teams. But let’s back into this: What do you think the Warriors need to be at after beating Minnesota at home on February 27th in order to make the playoffs? I guess you need to start with what their record needs to be and the end of the season and then look at the remaining schedule and see who we can legitimately beat.

Bilbo: Please continue, fine sir. It sounds as if you have some more knowledge to drop.

Cam: Dude, in looking at the remaining schedule I honestly see the Warriors going between 17-24 to 22-19. I see 5 games that they probably will lose but could possibly win if they are playing well. The 22-19 mark puts the Dubs at 40-42 for the season. And a sub .500 record isn’t making the playoffs this year in the West. Honestly, do you see the Warriors winning any of these 5 games in a row: @Thunder, @Memphis, Dallas, @Portland, @Lakers. The only game they really have a shot of winning is @Memphis and this is one of the five “could go either way” games I mentioned above. This is one of two 5 game losing streaks I’m seeing in the remaining schedule. The Warriors play 17 games vs. likes of Magic/Mavericks/Spurs/Bulls/Nuggets/Jazz/Celtics/Hawks. Let’s call these teams the Bad Ass teams of the league. Not only are they playoff teams but they are super legit playoff teams. Many homers will then say “yeah, the Warriors could beat these teams for sure!” Well, they’d have to beat a lot of them to make the playoffs. In the first half of the season the Warriors played 15 games against the Bad Asses. Do you know how many they won? One game vs. The Jazz in early November. Unless the Warriors somehow take it to another level where they can win 5 or 6 games of the 17 against the Bad Asses, it’s looking to me like the terrible losses to crap teams earlier in the season have already caught up with them. And that is a good lesson for a playoff team in the NBA: beat the crap teams or plan on beating up on a lot of Bad Asses instead.

No comments: